MTI Divergence ahead.

USA and European stock markets stopped to catch their breath on Friday after a strong week in which the FED kept interest rates on hold. The rhetoric from the FED also inferred a modest rate increase over the course of the rest of 2016 and 2017. The cost of money as reported here many times in paramount in the minds of investors and the watering down of the rate of interest rates increases was well received.

In the UK the VectorVest Composite had a great week and is sitting at a high made on the 15th of August 2016. A push through this high and the next target is the 2007 high made just prior to the great crisis. The Composite is the widest measure on the London market that I know. It is an equally weighted index of all the shares that VectorVest follow on the LSE and AIM.

Both short term trend (Primary Wave) and the underlying trend are positive with the trend situation summarized as UP/UP. The trend position is reported on the front page of VectorVest each and every day. The underlying has been UP since February this year while the Primary Wave last turned UP on September 19th which was last Monday. Trading the Primary Wave can be noisy but it called the move up this week perfectly and I am glad to report that I got most of it. My vehicle was a spread bet on the ft100 index which correlates well with the Composite.

Those versed in the harmonic patterns (that are my method of trading over a few days) should see the perfect Gartley 222 pattern on the h4 and daily charts of the FT100 cash. I noticed this as we were setting up for the Oxford User Group and took a small position based on this pattern while at the meeting. It was a full room of very experienced investors as are all our User Groups in both UK and SA. I added to this small position when the Primary Wave turned UP and that was done on Tuesday morning the 20th. I am still on board and the position is 200 points into the money. I need just one trade like this a week and I find the busier I am, the easier it is to do. Being busy stops me from taking trades on the short term charts and also stops me from taking profits too quickly.

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Years ago I coached a newbie how to trade. He was an owner of a large engineering company in Johannesburg and his vision was to sell the business and retire to Cape Town to trade full time. He sold the business and as in his dream bought a large house overlooking the Atlantic. In a matter of months he turned from the being consistently successful to a basket case. The reasons were too much time, trying to job 5 minute charts and taking profits far too quickly. This was something he didn’t have time to do when running the business. The screen is NOT your friend.

On the chart of the VectorVest Composite below I show the MTI in the window below the price. The MTI is an oscillator which comprises the rate of change of both the price and the breadth of the Composite. The breadth is measured by the proprietary BUY/SELL ratio on VectorVest. The MTI is mathematically massaged to fit between 0 and 2 akin to all metrics on VectorVest and when the MTI is greater than 1 the underlying trend is UP.

david

As I have mentioned here on many occasions the MTI has incredible leading characteristics. When the MTI is below 0.6 that normally precedes a rally or a change in trend. Similarly when the MTI exceeds 1.6 the composite invariably pulls back or suffers a trend change.

A divergence between the MTI and price is an exceptionally strong warning signal especially if the divergence occurs within an overbought/oversold area.

In January/February of this year the Composite sold off strongly. During February the index made a new low to what is to date the yearly low. The MTI however made a rising low. I have marked this on the chart. If price makes a falling low while the indicator makes a rising low, technicians refer to this as bullish normal divergence. It’s a strong leading indicator of a trend change especially as the divergence occurs on a much oversold area.

The Composite looks likely to make a new high soon. At present the index has charted a double top. The MTI has not followed and has charted a falling top. This is a potential bearish normal divergence and it needs to be watched carefully. A Sell signal which is preceded by this divergence will without doubt be very serious to your open profits.

For the moment the trends are good and the probability of the Composite reaching the top trendline that I have drawn on the chart below looks high.

David Paul

September 24th 2016

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Lies in trading….

When it comes to trading, I can pretty much spot a liar a mile off. Years of experience in the markets helps me to know what is achievable, what isn’t and why traders are often the biggest fibbers. It’s usually in the words they use when describing their trading. They can use all the clichés about how they went from unsuccessful to successful trader or about the great strategy they use but there’s normally a hollowness in their eyes or a subtle body movement that tells me something is missing from what they are saying.

You need to have real depth to be able to talk from the heart about your trading. I guess it’s like in TV interviews, it’s often easy to see if the interviewee is uncomfortable talking about a given subject and you can see when they are holding something back.

It’s the same with traders. I’ve met many genuine people who want to succeed in this tough business and they will pour their heart out about their experiences. But it’s those other traders who seem to glean over the messy stuff and want to give you their advice which seems hollow in a way. It’s happened a few times now where I’ve been speaking to someone and thinking, you’re looking me in the eye as you’re telling me this but I can see you’re lying.

So why do traders do it and who are these traders? For many, I guess it’s an ego trap. They simply can’t admit to the ups and downs of their trading performance so they tend to tell you about the mistakes they may have done in the past but imply that they never make those mistakes now. They don’t want to appear as flawed in an way but as traders, all of us are flawed!

We are all constantly fighting our basic pre-programmed instincts of fight or flight. Our brains are designed to protect us from harm, whether it’s physical or emotional. Our sub conscious will do its very best to make trading decisions that it thinks are in our best interests but as we know, trading is counter intuitive. What we naturally want to do (sell when a panic sets in) is not what we should actually do (see it as a buying opportunity).

These traders are often wanting to prove something perhaps to others. For example you see it in forums. There’s always a few individuals who want to project themselves as some sort of trading god within the safety of a chat room. Well I can tell you that I’m pretty close to being a trading god and yet I still have loads of losing trades!

So what’s the point of this article? Don’t trust what other traders say. If what they say seems too good to be true, there’s probably a little sugar coating going on. There are no holy grails, simply hard work and time applied. And even then success cannot be guaranteed. All traders have to overcome that natural fight or flight mindset or they are destined to know a huge amount of technical information but not really be able to outperform their peers….

cadsimon

Moving over to the markets, the USDCAD has been ranging between the 200dsma and the 500dsma. At some point it’s going to need to test one of them so I use them as targets if long or short. If price broke above the highs of early September, there’s very good odds of that 200dma being attacked. Otherwise a breakdown will see the opposite happen. I’m off on my annual vacation so see you in October…

Charlie Burton

Ezeetrader

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Are You Giving It All Away? Stop Now!

So you’ve won a nice amount of profit and it’s sitting there in your trading account quietly minding its own business. Now, you could withdraw it – or most of it – and let it live out its days in your current account, in your savings account, paying off an extra chunk of mortgage or a bit of a credit card. It could, in other words, be of use. Or you could immediately sink the lot directly into your next trade and be absolutely no better off than you were before – in fact, if you experience a loss, you’ll be in a worse state.  So before giving it all away, make sure you have your strategy and facts in place!

But Isn’t That The Point?

Yes. It is. Sort of. The point of trading is to make money, and then use that money to make more money. But not all of it. And not all of it on a trade that makes no sense, a trade in which you are basically just giving it all away without thinking. For many traders, there is a core amount of money that they are never going to see again. Whatever it is, be it £200, £500, £2,000, or more or less, it’s there in their trading account forever from now on. That’s what they trade with. But the profit off the top of that, now that’s what they take home with them. So winning a chunk of change and then throwing it all back into the next trade that comes along won’t help you. At all. Not in the least.

It Doesn’t Seem Real

That’s one of the reasons (excuses?) traders give for spending too much of their winnings – or stake – and giving it all away. It’s just numbers on a screen, it doesn’t mean anything. Only these are not just numbers. Click the pay out links and you’ll have that money in your account and it’s as real as anything else. But until that happens it feel as though it’s just play money. Or it can do. And if that’s the case then traders are more likely to ‘play’ with it. It’s like using a credit card rather than cash. Cash feels real and people spend less when it’s there in their hands. The money on a credit card feels like nothing at all – it’s easy to spend it and not even miss it. Until the bill comes in. Then it becomes all too real. And that’s the same with online trading. Once that bill comes in (once you’ve run out of credit) the game is over.

It Can Lead To Addiction

When it’s done the wrong way with no plan, no strategy and no forethought, trading can be an addiction as dangerous as gambling. Traders with an addiction to the market might not realise it, they might not believe it, but it can most definitely happen, especially when they have been giving it all away. The problem is – one of many problems – that the worse the addiction gets, the more and more money is needed to sustain the ‘high’. Winning a small amount just won’t cut it anymore. It has to be big, bigger, biggest. And that’s the big, bigger, biggest problem – those profits start to get used up quickly.  Especially when the strategy is abandoned and any trade will do. All the money, stake and profits and extra money too, will be spent and lost in this way, and that original stake will need to be ‘topped up’ more and more frequently.

But If We’re Making Money…

If you could guarantee that you would make money each and every time you made a trade there would be no problem. You could put as much money on any trade you found and come away smiling thanks to a nice, fat win. But that’s not how it works. Everyone loses, it’s just how probabilities and statistics work. Even though losing can be tempered somewhat by having an excellent strategy, this won’t account for sudden losses within the market – and a loss will occur. And that’s why you don’t rush to trade, that’s why you don’t use all of your money (or any more than you can afford to lose), and that’s why you pay attention to what is happening and don’t dive in feet first. Do this and you’ll be giving it all away.

Rob Colville

The Lazy Trader

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Mobile Streams Plc (MOS)

Mobile Streams Plc (MOS) licenses and distributes mobile content to mobile network operators and media companies. Its content portfolio includes games, music, pix, and video for mobile phones. The company retails its mobile content primarily through the mobile Internet in its Ringtones.com and MobileGaming.com superstores, mobile application stores and mobile operator portals.

The company published a trading update on September 6, in regard to operations at its India subsidiary Mobile Streams India Private Limited. MSIP exceeded the important milestone of reaching 50,000 active subscribers, driven by subscription growth enabled by billing connections for the three largest local mobile phone operators. The Company said it expected to add additional billing connectivity to the next three largest network operators in India before the end of the calendar year. This has the potential to increase the addressable audience from the current c.600 million mobile users to around 900 million such users.

The growth at Mobile Streams had been picked up some time ago by UK stock screening company VectorVest. The system uses an Earnings Growth rate (GRT) calculation, which reflects a company’s one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. MOS has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 23.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent

Another VectorVest metric is GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio), which compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. MOS.L has a GPE rating of 1.47. With long-term interest rates currently at 3.79%, the operative GPE ratio for MOS is 0.14, and therefore may be considered to be undervalued.

david

The chart of MOS.L is shown above. The value of the share is shown by the green line above the price. Sooner or later the price and valuation will coincide. Sometimes this occurs in a linear fashion but in smaller counters the move tends to be quick, explosive and news driven. The sudden jump in price was preceded and forecast by a jump in earnings growth rate (purple line in the window below price) from zero to an excellent 23% in the first three months of this year.

Since June 2016 the share has been sitting on support at 4p. The “tails” or “wicks” on the candles at that level are indicative of accumulation by insiders and those traders that have done their research. A Unisearch for undervalued shares that are showing a high rate of change in earnings growth will uncover many trading opportunities, easily, with a few mouse clicks.

In summary, MOS.L is undervalued compared to its Price of 10.52p per share, and despite offering somewhat below average safety, is currently rated a Buy

David Paul

7th September 2016

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 On VectorVest a simple search using the Unisearch tool will quickly find shares that are undervalued with good fundamentals that have just issued a Buy recommendation. This will give the active trader a short list of many high probability trading opportunities each week. Traders now have the opportunity to spend five weeks discovering VectorVest’s unique simplicity, automation and independent guidance. Just £5.95 buys a 5 week trial to enable deep exploration, or how the system can assist in smarter trading in as little as 10 minutes a day. Powerful tools. Proven strategies. Unique Perspectives.

 

Link here to set up a trial.

 

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Short Term Market Fluctuations Don’t Mean A Thing. No, Really!

For every up there is a down. And vice versa. Bad situations always change for the good. Good situation always change for the worse. But then they rise right back up again. Basically, life – and trading – is full of ups and downs. That means that short term market fluctuations mean nothing in the long run; they will turn around and so will your fortunes. Which is why you need to stick to your well used and successful strategy.

It’s A Long Game

It sure is. One trade – unless you have placed a huge amount of money on it, which, since they are never guaranteed no matter what is not exactly the best of ideas – is not going to let you retire. This is not like buying a lottery ticket. But a number of good trades over a number of years might net you enough to have a comfortable retirement eventually. But you will lose. You will most certainly lose. Short term market fluctuations can’t really be taken into account, and the best laid plans etc etc… Well, this is why we always recommend you never trade with any more than you can stand to lose. But if you are patient and don’t give up you should make more than you lose and that’s always a good thing.

The Bigger They Are…

Apparently, the bigger they are the harder they fall, but that’s not so much the case in trading. Short term market fluctuations don’t even touch the sides of a large trade that is heading towards its conclusion with a momentum to be reckoned with. A small dip here and there on its journey is really not going to make much difference to the final outcome. Just like a massive cruise ship or freight train, making these big trades stop or change direction takes a lot of effort and a lot of time; they’re not going to change overnight. So these little fluctuations are just that; and the end result is going to be pretty much what we all predicted.

You Know What? Don’t Even Think About It

That’s right. Trading is a set it and forget it kind of a job. It may not make it that exciting to newcomers (even though we all know it actually really is), but that’s how it works. Pacing around the trading floor or staring at a computer screen is not going to change the outcome of a trade. In fact, it could start a panic when there are short term market fluctuations and you spot them. You could jump in and stop your trade right there and then, and end up walking (running in a blind panic) away from something that would have made you a nice profit. By not looking you will probably never even be aware of the short term market fluctuations that happened, and in this case ignorance is absolutely bliss.

It’s The Long Term That Counts

As with anything in life, it’s the long term that’s the important thing to consider. Short term market fluctuations won’t last. But what are the long term trends? That’s what you need to focus on. Forget the rest. Those little blips are just annoyances on your way to a successful trade.

Rob Colville

The Lazy Trader

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Average Jobs number takes a September hike off the table

Stocks rose as investors wagered that today’s U.S. jobs data indicated a steadily improving labor market, while not advancing the case for an imminent increase in interest rates.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy hired 151,000 nonfarm workers in August, disappointing analyst expectations of 180,000 jobs. The private sector added 126,000 jobs. The national unemployment rate is a steady 4.9%.

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A deeper analysis of the report showed the majority of jobs added in August fell below the measured median wage. A sizable 30% of new jobs fell into the lowest-paying areas of the economy. Restaurants and bars led the way, adding over 30,000 workers. In my view the jobs report was poor, not only because of the lower than expected new hires, but also because of the lack of quality new positions created.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said this week that economic reports would determine the direction of U.S. interest rates. Last week Fischer highlighted today’s jobs release as being significant. Following worse than expected manufacturing data on Thursday 1st September, interest rate derivative traders reduced bets on a September hike.

Futures prices in the interest rate derivatives market indicating only a 34 percent chance of a rise in September which is down from 42 percent at the end of last week. The odds for a December increase in interest rates are about 58 percent.

The cost of money staying low until the US elections are out of the way is driving the Ft100 and US markets upwards as I write after the London close on Friday 2nd September.

The ft100 has been pulling back with the confines of the equidistant channel since the middle of August. The channel is easy to see on a four hour chart of the ft100 cash. In this time the Primary Wave on VectorVest has been down and I have been taking intraday trades on the index using the 30 minute chart. I only take intraday trades in the direction of the Primary wave and that’s caused my hit rate in these trades to increase enormously.

On Wednesday 31st August I noted that there was a confluence between the lower trendline defining the channel pullback on the Ft100 and a 62% retracement of the last upswing. The pullback had all of the characteristics of a “bull flag” which classic technical analysts believe is a very bullish pattern.

I felt that this level of 6740 which was just 30 tics below the last high was where the smartest bullish money would have placed their orders. In all markets and in all timeframes I actively look and hunt down these confluences of support in bullish market and confluences of resistance in bearish markets. I reported on social media that 6740 was the level to initiate a low risk trade on the Ft100 index. Please follow us on the VectorVest Facebook page if you wish to get access to my thoughts. I only post when there is something important setting up.

This analysis proved to be correct and after the close on Friday 2nd the Ft100 is at about 6900.

Confluences of support can be determined from a chart in many ways but three stand out. These are old resistance becoming support (horizontal lines on the chart), trend line support and FIB levels. When they come together then low risk trades can routinely be engineered. When I say “low risk” I am not speaking about “hit rate”, I am addressing the fact that it only takes a few points to prove whether the trade will be successful or not. On the Ft100 trade I used a 40 point stop and already the profit is 150 points which is a risk to reward of greater than 3.5.

The really positive aspect of buying at support is that most of the City analysts will be doing the same. I know this because I have spent many years working with professional traders and buying at support, rather than “chasing” the market, is what they do. Because of this, most trades taken at confluences of support move far enough to get your stop to entry, even if they eventually fail to be profitable. This has a big effect on p/l and it has a very positive effect on your mental state. However, buying at support is difficult emotionally and I suppose that’s why it’s profitable. It’s the things that are difficult emotionally that make the money. It’s the things that the crowd cannot do that will make you rich.

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Let’s try and complete a few bullet points on a simple trading plan using VectorVest.

Firstly I only wish to be trading “long” in the very best shares. For me this means that the company is undervalued and growing earnings both aggressively and safely. VectorVest puts a value to all of these metrics and it’s a simple process using Unisearch to find shares that are fundamentally sound, that suit you. Value, Relative Value and Relative Safety summarizes the fundamental position of the company easily with zero heavy lifting by the trader/investor for all 2200 companies on the LSE and AIM.

Secondly I want the share to be in the throes of a trend upwards. There are many ways of measuring the trend on VectorVest. In the past few months in this blog and at the User Groups I have been using the weekly chart to determine the trend. Added to the weekly chart are a 20 week and a 40 week simple moving average. If the 20 is above the 40 the trend is up and the 20 is below the 40 the trend is down. If you load a weekly chart of JD Sports for example, the trend is clear by using this, the simplest of tools. I have noted that shares frequently pause for breathe by pulling back into the zone between the 20 week and the 40 week average. Again this pullback is clear to see on JD Sports and on many shares with excellent fundamentals around the Brexit vote. This pullback into the zone creates a great buying opportunity and that what I did with JD Sports and Hill and Smith to name a few. These trades have been catalogued in this blog and on my Tip TV appearances with Zak Mir.

Thirdly, the entry point. Here we have a choice. To date I have been teaching that the trader wait until the reversal in price within the zone is confirmed by a reversal weekly candle pattern. There are only a few patterns that occur repeatedly. These are “hammers”, outside bars, morning stars and inside bars. A little research on the net will easily define these terms for those not versed in candle patterns. Again the weekly reversal candles are prominent on the charts of JD Sports and Hill and Smith.

I think waiting for a candle pattern to confirm is fine and it’s what I did as the market reversed after the vote. However I could have looked for a high probability support level by using trend lines, old highs becoming support and FIB levels as described on the h4 Ft100 trade above. This is what the professionals were doing just after the Brexit vote and it was their buying at support levels that created the reversal candle patterns. On Hill and Smith on the 27th June the share price collapsed to a confluence of an old high made just before Christmas last year and a 62% retracement of the last weekly range. That was the level and that’s where the professionals had their orders and the buying power over a few days created the hammer candle.

In your trading plan the entry can then either be with a weekly confirmation candle OR by using the more subjective and leading but simple support and resistance techniques. When I am at my best I will always try and get onboard with the latter. I am always not at my best. The stop loss using support and resistance techniques is much lower and thus I can load up on the number of shares purchased and still only risk 1% of my portfolio on any single trade. If you are in doubt of how to make this calculation then please study lesson 2 of the Quick Start Course on VectorVest.

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Buying at support can be very difficult emotionally. The market is tanking and you are getting ready to be a buyer. Sometimes they just keep on falling and you get stopped a few minutes after entry. Stops are essential with the technique. The losses are small especially if you start with a tiny position and add to the position as it becomes profitable.

The issues that the crowd struggle with are well known and written about in every trading text. Yet traders and investors fail to act on these time after time. The books say cut losers quickly and let winners run. The crowd does exactly the opposite and continually add to their misery by averaging their losers. In all my years of teaching traders I have not as yet found a trader that didn’t have some internal resistance to putting a plan (even a simple few lines) down on paper.

I have frequently completed a 3 day course at the institutional level covering in detail what I have discussed in what started out as three bullet points above.

If you haven’t already done so then please complete the 5 week Quick Start Course on VectorVest. It’s located under the “training” tab on the home page of VectorVest 7.This will simply talk you through the process of putting together a simple plan “that suits you” to take advantage of the enormous edge in markets that VectorVest offers.

All my positions are intact and all apart from Keller on a BUY recommendation on VectorVest. The Primary wave on VectorVest has turned UP after trading on Friday 2nd September, while the underlying trend has been UP since the last week of February.

I would be surprised if the VectorVest composite UK didn’t make a new high from here. If I observed the Composite making a new high while the MTI charted a falling high that would be a worry. That’s a divergence between price and momentum of price and it usually precedes a turn. In February the mirror image of this occurred and marked a major low and a change in trend. In February the Composite fell into the middle of the month while the MTI charted a rising bottom.

If I observe this divergence between the price of the VectorVest Composite and the MTI in the present overbought area, I will be taking some or all of my money off the table. The VectorVest Composite for the UK is shown below.david

For now I will sit and watch stops carefully.

I will revisit the trading outline above and illustrate how to define support within an uptrend at the next Q and A webcast on the 12th September and at User Groups in both UK and SA.

 

David Paul

2nd September 2016

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A stubbornness to succeed?

We all know trading as a concept is simple, (buy low, sell high) but in practice is pretty difficult. The reason it’s difficult is  because it is going against our pre wired response mechanisms to dealing with dangerous situations. So a great deal of un-learning has to take place in order to create a trader mindset.

Depending on the individual, traders will experience a whole host of different trading scenarios before becoming successful. Some seem to transition from no profit to profit quite easily whereas others make all kinds of mistakes before they learn the right path.

Personally, my journey started with greed which is never a good path to follow. A trader who hasn’t controlled this emotion is more likely to over-leverage and over trade in their quest to making money as quickly as possible.

I’ll give you another example. A trader I know has pretty much made every mistake in the book. He’s over-traded to the extent that in a single day once lost 30% of his account. He has revenge traded too in that desperate fight to try and make back prior losses. He has also done the obvious one of doubling up in order to try and make back prior losses.

Although he’s made all these mistakes, he has always recognised his problem after and worked hard to rectify it. Many traders would have simply given up after all the trader errors this gentleman has made and yet something has driven him on to keep trying. A while ago I spoke with this trader and said he needed to focus on just one type of trading style which he went away and duly did. He occasionally reported in that his trading had improved dramatically. By focussing, he stopped trying to chase the market and started letting it come to him.

He became more relaxed about his trading in general whereas previously he was always fighting the tape. So I was really pleased to hear he had put in a double digit gain last month on the back of all this hard work. Although we can’t always see the finish line when we are in the thick of it, this trader proves that if you have that stubbornness to not quit, your trading does improve as your experience does….

Moving over to the markets, I’m going to move away from the currencies for this week. I’ve been looking for the S&P 500 to move higher out of this summer consolidation and I believe it could now be close to breaking out again. The markets have shrugged of Yellen’s remarks a week ago and the NFP figures have helped the indices rally on Friday. Added to that, looking at the chart there’s been a hidden divergence on the stochastic indicator. This occurs when price makes a higher low but the stochastic becomes more oversold. So unless last week’s low is broken, I see the next move as a continuation to break to new highs for the S&P.

essimon

Charlie Burton

Ezeetrader

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