Bo Yoder’s S&P Analysis

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) is still struggling near last week’s highs as it attempts to form a lower high on its daily chart.  The longer this fails to turn and follow through, the higher the odds that we will spike up to take out the 52 week highs for a double top or false breakout.spy 11-30-15

Timken Roller Bearing (NYSE:TKR) formed a higher low last week and has been grinding higher on low levels of power.  I was hoping that we would have seen a test of the $33 level by now, and the lack of bullish enthusiasm makes me think that exiting and taking the profits currently available is the best course of action at this point.

tkr 11-30-15

APPLE Inc, (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been waffling back and forth right at the lower edge of the red zone, and looks like it is simply waiting for a catalyst to take price lower. If this stock can’t turn lower by the end of next week than I would consider a scratch for whatever profits are available.

AAPL 11-30-15

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Bo Yoder Bio:

Bo Yoder 150wBo Yoder is a two time author, professional career trader, author, and consultant to the financial industry on matters of market analysis, trading and risk management.

He has an MBA from The Boston University School of Management

Bo has been a featured speaker internationally at industry expos and has developed a reputation for the ability to trade live in front of an audience as a real-time example of what it is like to trade for a living, using a real money account.

During his focus on trading in real-time, he simultaneously talks the audience through his thinking, analysis, and a moment by moment walk-through of what is evolving and the actions he’s taking until his trade has resolved.

In addition to his two books for McGraw-Hill, Mastering Futures Trading, and Optimize Your Trading Edge (translated into German and Japanese),  Bo has written articles published in top publications such as TheStreet.com, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Trader’s, Active Trader Magazine and Forbes to name a few.

An active trader since 1997, Bo came out of retirement to partner with the creator of 3D Apex Predictive Failure Technology™,  Roger Khoury in 2011 and is now the Head Trader and portfolio manager for a boutique private money management firm, RBJ Financial Group

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Market Breadth diverges from Price

Although the price of the VectorVest Composite is moving upwards both the breadth of the move and its momentum look suspect.

As I write after the close on Friday 27th of November the trends from the Primary wave (short term) to Confirmed Calls (long term) are showing UP with the DEW technique giving a BUY signal after Thursdays close. However the breadth of the market as measured by the VectorVest buy/sell ratio hasn’t been able to turn positive and for that reason the advice is NOT to buy stocks at this time. Markets rising on limited breadth is always a worry.

Nevertheless I must take my trend signals. I reviewed the stocks that I am watching in a recorded video with Zak Mir at Tip TV during last week. A link to this recording is on this blog. I have added Bellway using my Lost Motion entry at slightly above 24 pound s and JD Sports at around 9.60 pounds. The latter hasn’t budged over the last month as the general market sold off and with a good breeze on our back, the share should break upwards soon.

If and when the Color Guard turns positive I will probably add a few Greggs into the portfolio. Greggs is undervalued and technically about to break upwards from a cup and handle formation. I have no idea of what’s going to happen next on a trade by trade basis, but the probabilities of this setup working when applied to a high VST share are good.

I am very pleased with the technical picture at Howden Joinery which also stood firm in the last pullback. It looks poised to move strongly in the next few weeks. British Poly has pulled back to the last top and should find support at around 7 pounds. The chart of Howden is shown here.

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david 30th nov

Over the last 6 weeks Savills was accumulated at an old low. For those who know my work you should see the “Lost Motion” setup. Over the last two weeks the share pulled back and was aggressively accumulated by experienced investors at a 78.6% of the last daily range. If you eyeball the chart, the candle patterns at the recent low consist of long tails. This means that there were strong intraday reversals. The “tweezer bottom” candle pattern charted is very strong and again with a positive market the share looks set for a strong move from here.

Carnival broke out of an ascending triangle and looked set for a move to 40 pounds but the terrorist attack on Paris has knocked all travel stocks.

The Copper price has charted a weekly “Doji” candle at the confluence of support I have detailed here many times. The Doji is frequently a reversal candle but for confirmation I would like to see a weekly close above the HIGH of this last week. Until that happens I will stand aside once more in commodity shares.

As reported in the bi weekly webcasts I have a long position in Oil from 40.5$. The setup was a bullish Gartley formation from 78.6% of the last daily range. The trade is in the money although the strong dollar and a reported Oil glut caused the profit to be halved over the last two days of the week. My stop is at entry.

In the US stock market I still believe that we are in a mature bull market which started in Match 2009. At present we are in the last and final wave of this move which should last well into 2016. The volatility that’s present at the moment is characteristic of this stage of the cycle and it’s far from easy to handle.

I will trade the market and not the forecast. At the moment the lack of breadth confirmation in the London market makes me nervous and wary.

David Paul

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November 27th 2015

 

 

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Bo Yoder’s S&P Outlook

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) is forming a lower high as we forecast last week.  Monday will be a critical session as a trend day to the downside will confirm the bears are back in control of the market, and would act as a good trigger for short-side exposure.

SPY 11-22-15

Timken Roller Bearing (NYSE:TKR) formed a higher low this week, and I would expect to see price test the amended profit zone near $33 per share as the odds increase for a double top to form.

TKR 11-22-15

APPLE Inc, (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been stuck in a daily range after getting pummeled in August.  It has rallied without the bullish energy needed for a sustainable rally, and our forecast is for the stock to turn lower as a lower high or double top forms.

AAPL 11-22-15

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Markets have a good week

The stock markets of the world have had a good week and as I write on Friday afternoon at the London close, the Dow cash is pushing north towards the old high made on the 4th November.

I think that this will continue and that the target for this move will be around 18550. That’s a 1.618 extension of the last pullback and it will be a new 2015 high. On VectorVest both the Primary Wave and the underlying trend is UP. The underlying trend joined the Primary wave after the close on Friday. The most conservative and longest term signal on VectorVest (known as a Confirmed Call) has been UP since the start of October and rode out the last pullback. The advice on the home page of VectorVest is to consider buying safe undervalued shares that are rising in price at this time.

I have been watching the Oil market closely. Crude pulled back to a 786 retracement of the last daily range and at the same time charted a bullish Gartley pattern. I trade all the Gartley patterns as they come along and am long of crude from 40.5$ per barrel. It’s a spread bet and as I write the trade is slightly in the money. The Gartley pattern is far from being correct in all trades. It has a hit rate of over 60 plus percent but really makes its money by providing a massive reward to risk ratio. That’s why I have to take them all. I don’t know whether the next is a winner or loser. Picking trades is a fool’s game.

The Copper price has spent three days at my downside target, with the lows of each day exactly on the level. This level is the confluence of a 1.618 extension of the last weekly range and the lower line defining an equidistant channel of the rout in the price since 2011. If this level is broken then the next support level is a long way south. If this level is broken then watch out for major financial chaos in the mining industry. At the London close there is no indication from candle analysis that support will hold, with the range of the weekly candle (high minus low) expanding from last week. This indicates momentum rising to the downside. It’s far too early for investors to get involved.

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In the stock market JD Sports looks as if it can break upwards once more. The share has traded sideways for the last month as the general market pulled back and that’s a strong sign. On VectorVest the EPS plot is rising and sooner or later the share should break. Just watch out for a liquidity inspired spike down before the move happens. I think that the VectorVest stop loss at 8.89 should cope with this.

Dart is relatively illiquid but seems to want to join the party. The share is much undervalued and features a rapidly rising EPS plot. Dart has broken from a symmetrical triangle formation and looks good for more. The chart of Dart is shown below.

david

After a magnificent run in the first half of the year, Greggs is breaking upwards once more. The share has traded a cup formation or rounded bottom and on Friday has charted the handle of the cup. It looks positive for further gains.

I will be active on Monday morning and will add to my portfolio as instructed by VectorVest.

On Monday afternoon I shall be reviewing the market in a webcast at 130 pm UK time.

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David Paul

November 20th 2015

 

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Bo Yoder’s S&P Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) has begun to accelerate to the downside after forming a clear market top in the forecasted area (red zone). We would expect to see some bounce type bullish action this week, but expect that no more than a lower high will form and that this top will hold.

SPY 11-16

 

Timken Roller Bearing (NYSE:TKR) broke out of the “accumulation” zone, and has been working itself through its first correction.  It has worked its way down into support, and any bounce in the markets this week should help accelerate this stock to the upside.  However, in the face of a major market top in the S&P 500, I have amended my profit target to a much more modest goal just above the recent highs.   The odds are too great for a sharp market slide at this time.  This stock would experience relative strength, it is true, but if the market starts to crack wide open no long will be safe!

TKR 11-16

Intel, (NASDAQ:INTC) disappointed as it gave up its bull flag without a fight.  An anomalous 8 losing days in a row took price down below the red zone, and triggered stop loss orders for this position.

INTC 11-16

Bo Yoder

RBJ Financial

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The FTSE’s outlook is tied to the release of the FOMC minutes this week

It has been a very bad week for the FTSE 100 the previous one with the index dropping almost 300 points. It seems that investors are pricing in a rate hike from the Fed on their next meeting in December and that as I have mentioned many times drives capital away from the stock markets.

My personal view is that a move on December is not a done deal, sure the progress in the US economy and the recent figures justify a move but something tells me that the US central bank might opt to wait another month. The economic growth on a global scale is still lagging and that might drive the Fed to delay its move for another month.

However, the general bias is that the US central bank will move forward and it’s that exact bias that drives the stock markets. Today the FTSE 100 is attempting a correction but for the momentum to change a serious reversal is needed. I place my pivot point around the 6,200 points’ level and for me to consider going long on the FTSE a basis needs to be established above this area.

I wouldn’t be too confident of such a development taking place at this time, especially at the beginning of the week. I believe that investors will remain cautious and choose to wait for the release of the FOMC meeting’s minutes later in the week to get some insight on what the US policymakers are thinking.

If we see further confidence in the US economy from the Fed bankers and a sense of urgency to raise rates then the FTSE along with the other global stock markets will point lower once again. However any signs of doubt or concern might fuel a correction rally so all bets are off at this time. I do believe that the most likely scenario is a bullish view from the Fed that will result into fresh losses for the indices but I am also mindful of the possibility of a surprise.

I believe that a good area to re-establish short positions would be the 6,150 to 6,200 points’ range, especially if the Fed minutes reveal the bullish views I mentioned above. In that case a test of the 6,050 lows and the 6,000 points’ area is the most likely outcome so I am biding my time until Wednesday so I can be positioned in the best possible way.

alpesh

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Market Timing is the KEY

Over the last two sessions the trend of the VectorVest Composite has turned down as measured by the MTI (Market Timing Indicator) moving below 1. As I write after the close on Friday 13th November, the primary wave or short term trend is down and the underlying trend is down. The guidance on the front page of VectorVest is that it’s a poor time to buy stocks.

It’s a time to watch your shares very carefully and be extra vigilant with stops. Earlier this afternoon I examined my portfolio and exited the lowest performer as measured by Relative Timing (RT). I exited Barratt just below 560. When the underlying trend turns down, then stops and risk management become essential for survival. All my other shares although down on the day and week are still well above their stops.

I exited Barratt with a heavy heart as the share is sitting at an old low and that is normally a good place to get onboard. All of this changes when the trend of the overall market turns down as I have mentioned above.

On VectorVest we have several market timing systems engineered to suit various types of traders from short term swing traders to position traders. The system that best suits my style of trading is called the DEW and it can be overlaid on the Composite or on any individual share. It uses a de trended Price oscillator (D), a price envelope (E) and a weighed moving average (W). These are manipulated to give buy and sell signals and over the last year the DEW has called each and every turn of the market. In August the DEW gave a sell signal on the 12th of August which preceded the large fall in that month. The DEW gave a sell signal again at the close of trading on Thursday (yesterday) and that added to my urgency to “weed the garden” today. The chart of the VectorVest UK Composite and the DEW market timing system is shown below.

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david

I shall personally not be buying any more stocks until the DEW and the underlying trend turns up and both are accompanied by lots of green on the Color Guard (measures short term strength) which is situated on the front page of VectorVest.

In last week’s post I spoke about the Copper chart and how I felt there was more downside there. Copper and Gold and Oil have both broken lower and that’s taken commodity shares down to lows hardly imaginable a few years back. In SA an iron ore producer is trading at a price which is exactly equal to the dividend I received from the same share in 2011. I feel that many index miners will need major financial surgery to get out of this predicament alive.

On a weekly chart Copper is making its way towards the channel bottom and a 1.618 extension of the last weekly range. Can this be the bottom?

During the week I forecast Oil to fall to 786 of the last range and complete a Gartley pattern at 40.5$. Crude has reached the forecast level. I am sure that this level will be supported by FIB orientated traders. I haven’t done anything as yet.

I am still positive about the stock market after this pullback is over although I will take my heed from the DEW signals and other signals on VectorVest as opposed to my feel.

I would be surprised if a turn up will occur until the US thanksgiving holidays are over and that’s two weeks away. The last significant top was at 16950 on the Dow and that’s where I think we will get to before this corrective wave 4 is over. Until then be careful and don’t hesitate to manage risk proactively.

David Paul

13th November 2015

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Steve Ruffley’s Stock and FX Market Outlook

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How to Locate and Trade the Fast Movers with VectorVest

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