Bo Yoder’s S&P update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) cycled back through its range highs as we forecast a few weeks ago. The bearish readings on this most recent drop have us hopeful that this could be “the top” that leads to a more substantial downturn, but we will not know the odds picture for sure until we can measure the supply/demand near the lows.

spy 7-25-15

Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) has been getting crushed so far this year.  This last breakdown has been occurring on very low bearish energy, and we believe that this stock is oversold and ready to flip back to the upside.  The conservative approach would be to wait until a double bottom or inverse head and shoulders can form, while aggressive traders could watch for intra-day reversals to attempt to capture the “snapback” to the blue zone.

INTC 7-25-15Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) whipsawed back to the upside as forecast, and now has formed a lower high on very flaky price action.  Our models show this stock going significantly lower in time, but for now the risk of random volatility would keep us out of this stock as we wait for the risk to reward ratios to grow to acceptable levels.

AAPL 7-25-15

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has been toying with the highs, but now has rolled over in full and seems ready to take out levels of support.  Our forecast is to expect a sharp drop down to the $66 area, then be on the lookout for a rally back up to complete a head and shoulders pattern near $69 per share.

JPM 7-25-15

Bo Yoder

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A tense week ahead

After a good start to the week, stock indices worldwide tumbled for the last four sessions. The Dow Industrials fell below a 786 retracement of the last up wave but stabilized at the 786 level in late trade. The 786 is a very strong FIB level that’s keenly watched by experienced players. In Germany the selloff wasn’t as marked and the Dax remains above a 50% retracement of the last range. In the UK the Ft100 seems to be following the lead of the Dow and is a tad above the 786 level. That’s probably caused by the earlier close.

The VectorVest Composite which is an equally weighted index of the entire UK market has fared much better with the Composite pulling back to a 38% retracement of the last up wave. I would expect the index to fall on Monday and that the first support will arrive as the resistance offered by the trend line defining the falling wedge from the April high becomes support. I have mentioned this wedge lots of times in the blog. On the Composite the pullback last week is nothing out of the ordinary and even under the most bullish of situations a rising bottom or a right shoulders is to be expected. The chart of the Composite UK is shown below.


From the above perspective the chart looks quite positive but the short term trend is down and the underlying trend is down and that’s reality. The front page of VectorVest says “Stand aside” and that’s good advice.

Keep an avid watch on the Composite and the key indices next week as a continued sell off below the major low of first week of July would be a very bearish turn. The Elliott wave people would call it a “truncation” and a 5th wave failure. The levels being tested at the moment on the Dow and Ft100 are very important.

The blood on the commodity markets seems to have taken over from Greece as the main worry to the stock market and there was enough blood for a vampire’s convention last week. I spoke about the 4 causes of losing money in the market to Zak Mir on Tip TV last week and picking bottoms and buying shares that are falling is right up there. Some months ago I was told by many that Anglo could not fall any further at 12 pounds. It broke below 8 on Friday. The interview is posted on

The rout was partly due to slow down in China with the Caixin/Markit PMI falling to well below the 50 level which indices a slowdown. This the 5th month in a row that the PMI has been below the key 50 level. Many key suppliers have increased supply and this has knocked prices further.

I still believe that the bear market in commodities is very mature and that a turn is near. It’s still far too soon for me and I will wait for a rising bottom.

In summary the stock market is sitting on very important support levels. I expect those levels to hold and the VV Composite technical picture looks in sync with a fifth wave from last October in progress. In Elliott terms we are at the end (I hope) of wave 2 with wave 3 of 5 about to begin.

Please follow the front page of VectorVest and it will tell you clearly want to do based on reality as opposed to my ego based Elliott count. Below the lows of early July start to watch stops like the proverbial hawk.

Trial VectorVest yourself for 5 week including full support and UK & US databases for only 5.95 GBP ($9.95) Click here to start a trial now.


David Paul

July 26th 2015

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Momentum on the FTSE 100 is pointing lower as the focus is on the Fed this week

So after a couple of weeks that the FTSE 100 had been trading above the key 6,700 points’ level the time came for the index to correct lower. As I mentioned in my previous note to you the London index was poised for a move lower and that move made sense to me both fundamentally and technically.

Last week the FTSE lost a lot of ground because it seems I wasn’t the only one expecting a correction so as soon traders saw the index breaking below the 6,700 points’ support the pressures actually intensified and drove the London benchmark significantly lower. This morning the sentiment remains bearish and at this time the FTSE is trading just shy of the 6,500 points having run a 300 points’ correction.

My view for this week remains bearish, the fundamental environment supports a further correction lower and even though the FTSE is overstretched at this point I can’t look anywhere else but lower. From a technical perspective a relief move higher could be in the cards but only for a brief time as I believe that the FTSE has enough momentum to drive it to its previous lows around the 6,450 points.

The Fed meeting on monetary policy on Wednesday is the key event of the week and if the US policymakers confirm expectations and start preparing the markets for a higher interest rate policy in the US then the global stocks markets will have no other option but to react to it. And that would mean more losses for the global stock indices so my tactic for this week is take advantage of any selling opportunities in case the FTSE pulls back a bit higher and I will be targeting the 6,450 points’ area.alpesh

If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this link.


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The turn goes by the book

Two weeks ago I wrote about the sequence of events that occur when a down move gradually turns upward. Since then, although progress has been slow, all is going by the text book. On Tuesday and Wednesday last week the 14th and 15th of July the Composite printed two Doji candles. The lows of these were defined by the trendline defining the tops of the falling wedge that I have been writing about for weeks. The smart bullish money was accumulating positions at this level. The highs of the 15th and 16th were defined a FIB level. This was a 786 retracement of the last daily range for those of you versed in this subset of Technical analysis. The smartest bearish money was shorting shares and the index at this level. On Thursday the 786 gave way and the trend of the Primary wave won the battle. The battle is shown on the 6 month daily chart of the VectorVest Composite below.




Detailed next is what happened day by day as the trend changed over the last two weeks. It’s vital that you internalize this process and allow it to become second nature as it repeats over and over again.

On July 10th the short term trend or Primary Wave changed from down to up and that was a signal for the most aggressive players to get aboard. In this period I traded some short term spread bets on the FT100 cash index based on intraday 30 minute chart and all in the direction of the Primary Wave. I personally judge this signal to be too aggressive for my long terms funds. I am getting too conservative for my own good I fear.

On July 16th a Green Light Buy signal appeared on the Color Guard of the VectorVest home page. This simply means that the VectorVest Composite UK has gained both day over day and week over week. It’s the second sign that I wrote about two weeks ago that the trend has turned. It makes a great entry point for fairly aggressive traders.

On July 17th the week closed with the Composite being lower than Thursday’s value so no second Green Light was forthcoming but the market did move higher for the second consecutive 5 day trading period. The MTI is sitting exactly on 1 and if it gets above 1 the most conservative VectorVest timing model will kick in. The Confirmed Call will print a BUY signal on the Composite when the MTI goes above 1 and the market has moved higher for two consecutive weeks. This with any luck will occur on Monday. If this occurs then even the most conservative players should carefully consider purchasing safe, undervalued shares that are growing their earnings aggressively.

I had wished to stick my toes into the market on Friday (after the Green Light BUY) but a string of meetings in the City meant that this did not occur. My first meeting with Zak Mir of Tip TV is recorded on this blog. I will now do what the front page of VectorVest tells me to do. I will buy stocks if and when the market moves higher on Monday. My watchlist is prepared. Carnival looks interesting and has just broken a 52 week high after charting an ascending triangle consolidation pattern. The ship looks to be going higher. Both Avon Rubber and Go Ahead Group are sitting at great levels where former resistance has become support. JD just keeps going and I am reminded of Livermore when I have a look at the chart.

“I have never seen a share too high, not go higher and too low, not to go lower”.

The second part of Livermore’s quote certainly applied to the large miners during the last few months. I can count about a dozen CFA types who told me “Anglo and BHP can’t go any lower” over the last year.

Gold, Platinum and commodity shares had a ghastly week as the price of their mined product fell through the floor. I note that journalists are currently writing about the dire state of the large miners that are a big part of the Ft100. In my experience when this occurs we are close to a bottom. My charts indicate that Gold has still further to fall towards 1080$ before a bottom is in. I will discuss these potential (very aggressive) opportunities is my bi weekly webcast on Monday afternoon at 130 PM UK time. That’s 230 PM in Europe and South Africa. They moves could be life changing.

I have been discussing a wave 5 in the stock markets of the world that’s still to come, for some weeks. This wave 5 is underway and will soon be confirmed by the most conservative market timing model on the VectorVest UK program.

I think that the probabilities favor a challenge on the April highs fairly soon.

To try the VectorVest system for 5 weeks for only 5.95 GBP (UK & US databases) please click here

David Paul

July 18th 2015

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Has the FTSE 100 exhausted its momentum to the upside and would a correction seem natural?

So finally the Greeks and their creditors seem to have reached a deal to resolve the issue that has tormented the money markets over the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless though the FTSE 100 has gained over the last week when it seemed that a deal was close and managed to remain afloat throughout the days when Germany’s objections threatened to scrap the whole thing.

Last Monday the FTSE 100 was swept higher approaching the 6,700 points when widespread optimism for a final deal hit the wires and as I mentioned above the London index showed impressive resolve to actually end the week just shy of this important barrier. What is important to note is that the FTSE was able to do exactly that due to the fundamental support behind it having to do with the accommodative low-rates environment.

Today we finally found out that a deal has been reached and of course the FTSE opened even higher hitting the 6,770 points but the question now changes to whether the index can sustain these gains. In my opinion it’s important to mention two things: first, the deal still has some way to go as it has to pass from the Greek and the rest of European parliaments – and especially the former one will not be easy – and secondly, the index looks overstretched from a technical point.

So I have to say that I could see a consolidation forming at this point and possibly a re-test of the 6,700 points’ support. Any news of difficulties to pass the deal from the Greek parliament that appears torn could add to the technical outlook that hints that the FTSE is overbought and we could see a correction. My main support area lies around the 6,650 points but I doubt whether it can be broken downwards, however a correction towards it wouldn’t surprise me.

If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this link.

Alpesh is presenting live at this week´s Round-the-Clock-Trader webinar event on 16th July, at 11am BST.

Join Alpesh for his talk “What´s Hot and What´s Not for Trading Success” – click here to sign up free


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Bo Yoder´s S&P update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) continues to chop around without direction or sponsorship. Our forecasting model has the market at a short term low, with the odds highest for a short term rally back up into the $208-$210 area, then the odds are growing that a range will form.

SPY 7-11

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) PFE experienced a total flip in power, and is likely to short squeeze back up to take out the $35 per share level. This is disappointing, but the prudent action would be to take this trade off as a scratch no that things have changed.
PFE 7-11

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was able to hold the trail stops area near the $129 level and follow through to the downside.  Apple is finding a short term bottom here, and is likely to correct back higher before reaching back down to attack the $120 region.  The down move is pretty extended at this point, and I would expect to see a pretty significant whip back to the upside.  This is a great place to take profits and wait for a re entry point into a lower high in the future.


AAPL 7-11

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is back on my radar after it formed a blow-off top and rolled down into the most serious correction it has experienced in some time.  I would expect to see the bulls come back into the stock over the next week, but would expect to see it form a lover high or double top pattern as the growing bearish energy takes over.  If the topping pattern forms, I would expect to see the $61-$64 area challenged, which offers a nice reward/risk scenario for short exposure.

JPM 7-11

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Baby steps towards an Up wave

After a sell off early in the week the support levels I spoke of last week have held. The falling wedge is one of my favourite trading patterns and I have specialized in its nuances over many years of trading.

On the Ft100 the pattern setup exactly as I was setting up for a VectorVest User Group in South Africa. It was fun to illustrate how well the pattern defines the turn and details an exact which gets the brave trader into the position at the cusp of the turn in real time. On Friday morning the London market gapped to the target from the falling wedge. This does not mean that the market will not go higher. It simply means that the falling wedge is now played out in terms of predicting any further price movement. The chart of the VectorVest composite is shown below and features the large reverse divergence that’s been building up between the price curve and the momentum of the price as defined by the Macd. This is positive and many refer to a divergence of this type as a “slingshot”.


It was quite a week with the Greek situation, China falling apart and of course the NYSE going MIA for most of a morning. Since the top on June 12th the Shanghai Composite has crashed by 34%. It bounced on Friday but the rally is suspect, as intense government intervention is putting steps in place to prop up the index. History shows that this intervention and efforts to bypass the free market will backfire. I have no doubt that the index has further to fall.

As you know I am keenly watching resource shares and feel that the trend down in resources in mature. However there is no sign or confirmation of a bottom in the large listed mining shares that feature prominently in the blue chip Ft100 index. The bear market in resources in the longest in recorded history and the falls have been severe. I am a believer that the bigger the bear the bigger the new bull will be. Don’t fret I will shout here when it’s time to consider getting onboard these shares and when they go it will be a life changing moment for the brave. Appling the Midas touch technique, which is a standard layout on the VectorVest program, would be a great way of confirming the turn on resource shares. As the name implies this technique was engineering by Dr DiLiddo to trade the US Gold index. In summary I am watching resource shares but it’s too early to consider getting on board and the Chinese market falling hard won’t help. The turn may be many months and even a year away.

Fed Chair Yellen made a clear intention of putting up US short term interest rates during 2015 in a talk last week. Her counterpart at the IMF is recommending that the FED not do this. It’s a very interesting decision as the academics have long felt that it was increasing rates too soon after the 1929 recession that precipitated the Great Depression.

I have long felt that the stock indices of the world require a 5th leg upwards to complete the wave that started in October 2014 and I am hoping that this started during the course of last week. This should take the VectorVest Composite up to and exceed the high made during April 2015. Any failure to make this high and a fall below the lows of last week (the resistance/support line that’s been in place for months) would be a very bearish event. MR Elliott would call it a truncation.

The facts are accurately described by the trends and market breath measurements on the VectorVest program. Last week I detailed the sequence of the turn from a down trend to a new uptrend. The first signal has fired and the Primary Wave has turned positive. This is a very aggressive signal and it’s not for me, save from some intraday short term spread betting activity.

If the market continues upward on Monday then the next signal should fire soon. This would be a Green Light in the price column of the Color Guard on the home page of VectorVest. This simply means that the price of the VectorVest Composite has risen day over day and week over week. It’s an aggressive signal but excellent for those who wish to get into positions early and build on that position as the more confirmed signals follow. Lesson 3 on the “Successful Investor Quick Start Course” which is located under the Training tab on the VectorVest program describes the technique in detail. Please take a few moments and study this lesson to prepare. Even if you just observe the signal the first time around it will be great experience.

If all goes well I would expect to have stuck my toes back into the market during the course of a very busy week ahead.

To trial the full VectorVest system for 5 weeks (including 5 disc 2 day seminar plus free investment book and UK & US databases) for only 5.95 GBP – please click here

I will be presenting my talk, “How to Locate and Trade the Fast Moves with VectorVest”, at this week´s Round-the-Clock-Trader webinar event on Thursday, 16th July at 2pm – to sign up free please click here

David Paul

July 11th 2015

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Bo Yoder´s US Markets Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) finally has put some price action on the chart that is worth commenting on!  With the turmoil in Greece dominating the headlines, the S&P has dropped out of the range it has been trapped in since February. Our forecasting model has the market at a short term low, with the odds highest for a short term rally back up into the $208-$210 area, then either a range or a drop back down to new lows would be expected.  We will be able to better forecast the odds for a breakdown once the resistance levels have been tested.

SPY 7-6

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) PFE continues to grind lower and has reached down to test areas of support near $33.25 per share. Power continues to build to the down side and I would expect to see a breakdown below support before week’s end

PFE 7-6


Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is following its forecast to the letter, and after breaking the 100SMA (Pink dotted line) it found a short term bottom and is moving back up to retest.  I would trail stops down to the $129 level or take scratch profits soon as the breakdown did not occur with any real conviction.  This lackluster follow through is often the behavior that precedes a short squeeze (Which could take the stock back up to $132).AAPL 7-6

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is worth following up on one last time as we see the fall out from the double top.  This pattern remains one of my favorite shorting/exit signal for this reason…What a textbook example of the old trading adage “sell when you can, not when you have to”.

MS 7-6

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FTSE 100 seesaws between the 6,500 and 6,650 points while Greeks vote “No” to austerity measure

The European stock markets have been under pressure over the past couple of weeks due to the developments in Greece and the FTSE 100 couldn’t have avoided being dragged lower. The decision of the Greek government to put Eurozone’s latest proposal to a referendum vote and let its people decide how to respond was bound to put the stock markets under pressure as uncertainty is always a risk for investors.
The FTSE 100 has been trading below the 6,600 points’ barrier throughout last week and this morning the London index opened significantly lower again after the Greeks rejected the institutions’ proposal with a resounding 61% majority. It goes without saying that this development means that the Greek drama will continue and while the country remains in a state of capital controls a possible Grexit is still a threat as the days pass.
However what I believe is crucial to note regarding the FTSE’s reaction all these days is the stubbornness that the index is showing not to break below the 6,500 points’ support floor. I think that from a technical standpoint that reveals that there’s increased conviction over the index’s short-to-medium-term outlook.
To be more precise, I think that investors view the FTSE’s short-term future higher with a view to recover from all the retreat that has seen over the past couple of weeks. The domestic economic progress along with the low-rates environment that will last at least until the end of the year are strong enough fundamental factors to send the index higher as soon as the situation with Greece normalizes, or at least eases a bit.
In my mind, this week traders should look to take advantage of any price action between the 6,500 points’ support and the 6,600-50 points’ resistance as the FTSE will look to consolidate before moving higher again. I don’t think we risk any breaks below the support floor unless Greece suddenly faces an exit from the union and at the same time I think the FTSE will find it hard to break above the 6,650 so soon.
If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this linkalpesh.

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David Paul´s Market Update

The financial world seemed to on hold during Fridays trading. The US is on holiday and the rest of the world was awaiting the decision by the Greek electorate.  The reults are in and the people have said “No” to further austerity.  We can only wait to see how the markets react.

Both short term and long term trends on the VectorVest UK Composite are pointing down with a Confirmed Down being in place since the 19th June.

The Chinese market is in free fall after a period of madness. That has caused large commodity based shares to test the lows not seen since 2009 at the height of the financial crisis. The trend on mining shares is strongly down but many contrarian traders are excited by double bottom on Anglo and point to this being a high reward to risk trade. My mentor MR Gann would be buying Anglos at the moment at the low with a tight stop. If the trade works the upside is enormous and if it does not, the loss is small. Asymmetrical risk to reward is the key to making money in the trading world and in any other business.

Fund manager Paul Tudor Jones suggests that a 5 to 1 ratio is required prior to him risking a dollar. Several Candlestick trading experts would advise to wait for a confirmation candle at the low. Another advises a conformation candle that closes above an 8 week exponential moving average. I am using a weekly chart to chart the double bottom since 2009. The latter technique adds greatly to the hit rate of the setup although MR Gann would have frowned about the dilution of the risk to reward. Anglo is a trade ONLY for those that can manage risk and I advise waiting for the 8ema confirmation spoke about above. The trader who has proposed the technique calls the 8ema the T line. The chart of Anglo is shown below with the potential double bottom highlighted with the blue horizontal line.david_paul1
The support level that I have discussed here many times is still in place on the VectorVest Composite UK. This level acted as resistance in September and December last year and subsequently has acted as support on 5 occasions during 2015. The last being a few days ago. The chart of the VectorVest Composite UK is shown below. It’s an equally weighted index of all the shares followed by VectorVest on the LSE and AIM. At present VectorVest follows 2141 shares each day and rates each for value, safety of earnings and trend.david_paul2

The broader technical picture is still quite positive in my opinion. It looks to me that the market expects some form of compromise in Greece or that the market feels that Greece just doesn’t matter in the greater scheme of things. Certainly the Gold market (normally benefits from chaos) is showing no signs of a flight in that direction. Gold is on lows and has sold off by 50$ during the confusion of the last few weeks. The yellow metal is sitting on a weekly support level, which if breached, would mean a high probability of free fall in the gold price.

The Composite UK has fallen from the high in April to support in a “Three Drives pattern”. The three thrusts down are quite easy to see. This pattern has been spoken about by many technical traders and given many names along the way. It’s frequently called a falling wedge and in “Streetsmarts” by Connors and Raschke the pattern is known as “3 little Indians”. Another worker has named the pattern after himself as Wolfe Waves. The latter is also a chapter in Streetsmarts which is an excellent book for those interested in short term swing trading. It’s rarely off my trading desk and a book that I refuse to lend out.

The “3 drives pattern to a low” is a bullish event. In the case of the Composite at present I find it hard to name the pattern a falling wedge or a flag. Both patterns are bullish events. If I saw the same pattern on a 30 minute candle chart of an index or forex I would have without hesitation bought it at the support level. My rules in the stock market prevent such an action.

My rules are quite simple.

1. Select undervalued shares that are growing earnings both aggressively and safely. The Big Hitters search on VectorVest finds these shares with a few clicks. Use the VectorVest simple layout to cherry pick the best shares using the techniques presented in the Quick Start Course which is within the VectorVest program. Click on the training tab to access the course. It’s concise and contains excellent material.
2. Buy into those shares when the Composite prints signals that the trend has turned UP.
3. Risk 1% capital on each position and limit the number of positions to 10-12. Also I will try not to have more than 2 shares from the same sector of the economy.
4. Sit until the underlying trend turns down assuming the share trades above the VectorVest stop. Remember those who can be right and sit are uncommon.

There are many signals on VectorVest to indicate that the Composite has turned upwards. These signals tend to fire in approximately the same way at each turn and it’s common for two signals to fire on the same day. They are

1. Primary Wave turns UP. This will be seen on the home page of VectorVest and the trend situation will be reported as Up/Down. This is a very aggressive signal and I don’t use it.

2. Green Light BUY. This is a very good signal and is a good spot for aggressive traders to buy into their first shares after a down turn. It’s shown by a green light on the price column of the Color Guard. A green light means that the Composite has risen day over day and week over week. If you scan back within the Strategy of the Week archives there is some great videos of how to apply the Green Light Buy.
3. Green Light Buy which is confirmed by the RT Kicker Timing system. This is shown by a black asterisk within the green light in the price column of the Color Guard. In the background the program applies two moving averages to the VectorVest RT metric. If the short average is above the longer average that indicates that the RT is rising and that the price momentum is rising. Any signal from price (the green light) in an environment where momentum is rising has a much higher hit rate. That’s what makes the RT Kicker with the Green Light a really great entry point. At the point the trend situation is still Up/Down. This is where I will take my first positions within the new trend. Once again there are some excellent videos on the RT Kicker Timing System within the SOTW archives.

4. The MTI indicator turns above 1. This metric measures the underlying trend and at this point the trend situation is now Up/Up. The MTI combines the momentum of the price of the Composite with the momentum of the BUY/SELL ratio into a single indicator running between o and 2. A rising market where the number of shares on a BUY recommendation is gaining shows that the advance is across the board and not just from a few counters.
5. The underlying trend is confirmed by price action. The signal is known as a Confirmed Call and it is shown on the home page of VectorVest. The signal can be plotted on the Market Timing Graph. At that point even the most conservative investor should be on board.

Please consider which of these signals suits you. In the last wave upward which started in January I used the Confirmed Call to get into the market as the more aggressive signals occurred over the holiday period. I would hope to into the market much sooner on this occasion.

The trends are negative and I will sit and wait. There is a red light in the price column of the Color Guard and that red light is confirmed by the RT Kicker Timing system. The home page advice that “VectorVest does not advocate buying any stocks at this time” is good advice. Not having a position is a position.

If you´d like to try the VectorVest system please use our special London Investment Week code to open a 60 day trial for only 5.95 GBP.  Using this code you´ll receive the 2 day seminar on CDs, a free book and other valuable information.  Click here
David Paul

July 3rd 2015.

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