Traders enjoy 2nd On-Target Trading Master Class

On Friday 17th, April – a room full of traders at our second On-Target Trading Master Class enjoyed six presentations from experienced traders.  These 45 minute workshops were each punctuated with a short coffee break allowing time to switch out presentations, have a quick coffee, and speak freely with the other guests and speakers.

Our expert speakers included:

  • Charlie Burton, EzeeTrader
  • David Paul, VectorVest
  • Philip Konchar, Tradercast
  • Lee Sandford, Trading College
  • Richard Muller, Alpha Harvest Ltd
  • Thiru Nagapaan, Master the Markets

Here are some photos from the day which took place at the elegant City of London Club on Old Broad Street.  To add to the city trading atmosphere, guests enjoyed the inclusive lunch sitting on the roof terrace in the shadow of the Gerkin and other famous London City skyscrapers!

Reserve your place at the next On-Target Trading Master Class on 26th June 2015 at City of London Club – Click here

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The FTSE 100’s short-term outlook hinges on the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday

Alpesh 75Last week in my previous note to you I have called for a consolidation on the FTSE 100 between the two important levels of 7,000 and 7,100 points and it seems that I was right on the money. The reasoning behind my analysis was mainly that the way the FTSE was trading at the time and the lack of any important reports or developments scheduled for the past 7 days meant that the London index would find it difficult to break these important support/resistance zones.

Now, a week after that and as the FTSE 100 did hold its sideways pattern between the aforementioned levels I believe that we could see some more action as we move forward. For me the most important event of the week will be the Fed meeting on Wednesday and I think that it has the potential to cause quite a stir in the markets.

Just so I can bring you up to speed here, the hot topic of chatter between traders and investors these past couple of weeks has to do with the recent string of discouraging reports and figures from the US. Across almost all sectors and metrics the recent performance of the domestic economy in the States has been short of amazing and that has driven market participants to doubt whether the Fed will remain firm in its rhetoric and intention to hike rates at the end of the summer.

It goes without saying that such doubts are always reflected on the major money markets and we have discussed and explained many times in the past why a prolonged low-rates environment works wonders for the FTSE 100 along with the rest of the global stock markets. As such I believe that the anticipation of a slightly more bearish rhetoric from the Fed has the potential to keep the FTSE 100 trading near its 7,100-50 highs.

Whether that will translate to fresh and sustainable gains will hinge on what the Fed policymakers will discuss during their meeting. Any hints towards a delay in their hiking agenda or even any comments that could be translated as more bearish than before will most probably send the FTSE towards the 7,250 area and that will be my target for now.

At the same time though we need to be mindful of the possibility that the Fed could appear unfazed from the recent dismal figures from the economy and reaffirm their intention to hike soon. Such a development should drive the global indices sharply lower as investors that would have built up their positions would rush to offload them. In such a scenario my first target obviously lies at the 7,000 points support floor.

If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this link.

 

alpesh

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Bo Yoder´s S&P Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) continues to stay range-bound on its daily chart.  One would expect a radical breakout to occur after the chart pattern that has formed on the daily chart, but the market seems to remain in this weird passionless state.

At this point, I can’t see what catalyst it will take to break us free, but I do believe it will be violent when it comes.  I am not trading this index until its behavior clears up and I feel that my odds predictions will offer me a solid edge again.

SPY 4-26

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) seems to be forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern on its daily chart.  I am still expecting to see this pattern resolve to the downside, with the 200 SMA (Purple line) as my next profit goal.

VLO 4-26

 

Freeport-McMoran Inc. (NYSE:FCX) followed though just as predicted.  Now that price has closed above the $19.80 level, and stops have been trailed below the $18 per share area, we wait to see if another solid bullish wave can take this stock into the $23-$24 per share area.

FCX 4-26

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The FTSE 100 came off its recent highs but finds it difficult to break below the 7,000 points’ support

A very interesting turn of events for the FTSE 100 last week and a very intriguing week ahead of us taking into consideration the current state of the London index. Just when it seemed that the FTSE had gained a firm foothold above the 7,000 points last week and was preparing to build on that to attack the 7,200 points’ highs a steep sell-off on Friday complicated things.
The retreat to the 7,000 points’ floor just before the end of the week was a sudden development that caught many traders off guard as nothing hinted towards such a scenario. The focus was indeed on the UK domestic economy during the last session of the week due to the release of the employment-related figures but no market-moving numbers were released.
In fact the employment data showed a mild weakness for the labor market during the past month which would make for a good case for the FTSE to rise as BoE’s plans for raising rates are pushed further into the future. Nevertheless today the London benchmark index seems to attempt to take back its recent and sudden losses trading firmly between the 7,000 and 7,100 points levels.
My guess for the week ahead is that the FTSE will find it difficult to break out of these two important price levels, the 7,000 points’ support and the 7,100 points’ resistance barriers. This week doesn’t hold too many significant reports so it could make for an excellent opportunity for a consolidation attempt.
In cases like that the preferred tactic is always to “play the range”, to attempt to catch reversal attempts at the extremities of this consolidation range and make the best of it with quick trades with tight stops. I reckon it would take a significant development to change the market bias at this time and unless a surprise is on the cards we’re most likely in for a calm trading week with reduced volatility.
If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this link.

 

alpesh

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Bo Yoder S&P Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) continues to stay range-bound on its daily chart.  We are currently testing minor range resistance near $211 per share, but the odds picture I am seeing would predict a break of that range and a retest or minor breakout to the upside above the $212 level.

SPY 4-13

 

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has held up above the 50 SMA (orange line) repeatedly, “grinding higher” along that level.  While the price pattern shows a breakout is likely to the upside, my proprietary 3D Apex Predictive Failure Technology™ is telling me that this pattern is likely to set up and fail.  I am going to pass for now, and will feel no pain if it can stagger up to retest the highs as I will know that without a washout to the downside, this pattern doesn’t carry with it the odds for a successful outcome that I demand.

AAPL 4-13

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) continues to push lower, and looks poised to hold below the 50sma (orange line).  This implies that the next stop will be the support offered by the 200sma (purple line), and I would take profits in full if that target zone is reached.

VLO 4-13

 

Freeport-McMoran Inc. (NYSE:FCX) formed the slight bearish whipsaw that I predicted in last week’s column, and now seems poised to push higher and breakout above resistance.  When this stock can close above the $19.80 level, I would trail stops to below the $18 per share area.FCX 4-13

 

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Has the FTSE 100 exhausted its upwards momentum or is there more to come?

The FTSE 100 has impressed market participants these past couple of weeks after having run a rally of more than 300 points. At the beginning of the month the FTSE was trading near the 6,750 points’ support floor but the move that followed was nothing less than impressive and today the index has broken above its recent highs and is trading at 7,050+ points.
As usually in these cases, the question that comes in mind is whether the FTSE can sustain its gains and build on them to go even higher or whether a reversal is what to expect. I am torn at this point and making a call is not that simple this time. The reason for that is that I see both an opportunity for the London index to go even further but a risk as well that could weigh down on its outlook.
On the upside, with the Inflation report expected this week I believe that there’s an interesting opportunity for the FTSE to go against market’s expectations and continue higher. This might sound as contradictive but I always believe that when the market thinks that there’s no room for more upside it’s exactly that time that money markets overshoot expectations and continue rallying.
On the other hand though we must not disregard the risk posed on the UK stock market from the upcoming elections. As we move closer to them I think that investors will try to protect themselves from any surprises while the race remains tight since markets don’t like uncertainty. So you see there’s no clear answer for me and at times like that I think having a scenario for each case is the best approach.
So if the FTSE builds a steady foothold above the 7,000 points area then my target to the upside lies in the 7,200 points level. To the downside, a clear retreat below the 7,000 points’ pivot could lead the FTSE back down to the 6,900 points’ area of support. As the trigger for either scenarios I regard the Inflation report on Tuesday and the Retail Sales figures from the US during the same day.
A word of advice though, now is not the time to build long-term positions, be picky and be quick about it. If you want daily signals on how to trade the FTSE 100 then my newly launched Sentinel Signals™ service might be of interest to you. You can find more information on the Sentinel by clicking on this link.alpesh

 

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