The S&P 500 has been grinding higher

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) has been grinding higher on a “flight to quality” as overseas investors are diversifying their funds against the volatility risk caused by the Greek/Eurozone crisis by bringing funds into the US Equity markets.

The long-term cycles remain bearish, but only a fool takes lightly the power that news of world governmental instability has to impact prices in the short term. No trades for me here until the supply/demand forces become less muddled.

SPY 2-22

 

Sprint (NYSE:S) has recently turned the corner, and formed an up-trend on its daily chart.  The current correction is pulling back into areas of moving average support, and I would expect this stock to retest it’s highs near $5.25 per share, then perhaps make a run at the $6.25 level.

I would watch for daily reversal candlestick patterns such as the “hammer” candle that was left on the charts after Friday’s session, and would set my protective stop loss levels under that bars low.

S 2-22

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) is another strong stock that has established momentum to the upside, and is pulling back into areas of moving average support.

The bullish engulfing bar on the daily chart acts as confirmation for me, and I would be looking at this stock for a long trade if prices break out above the Friday highs.  Protective stop loss orders would be set under that bars low, and I would expect to take some profits off as new highs are seen in the $35-$35.50 area.

PFE 2-22

Please follow and like us:

FTSE ticks higher but I am not so sure it can sustain these gains

After a relatively quiet first part of the previous week the FTSE made it higher on Friday, reaching the 6,950 points’ area which is pretty impressive if you take into account that investors had little news to be excited about.
I have been talking to a lot of traders and investors the past weeks and most of them keep repeating to me more or less the same thing: the FTSE can’t sustain these levels and at some point it needs to correct lower. I am inclined to agree at this point and the main reason is the way that the London index has started this week earlier today.
A sharp decline off the recent highs that brought the index back into familiar territory just below the 6,900 points. This looks to me as if the radical climb on Friday was just a fake-break and the real momentum is towards the downside. I wouldn’t go as far as betting on it right now but I would be very interested to do so if the 6,850-60 area gets breached.
In my opinion the pivot point for the days ahead lies there, I consider the 6,850 to 6,900 points’ range as a no-man’s land and I would only look into trading the FTSE to the downside when it breaks below the 6,850 support level. My target for this week is located around the 6,800 points floor.
However we should not get ahead of ourselves though as there could be fresh news from the Greek debt negotiations and the FTSE 100 can see some volatility on the back of it. So to sum it up I am looking for a good opportunity to short the index below the aforementioned pivot level while keeping an eye on any news from the Greek issue.
I would like once again to invite you all to my upcoming Forex MasterClass which I believe will be the educational event of the year. I have included a 10% discount for anyone that wants to join within the next couple of days so click the banner below to find out more – don’t worry the 10% discount code is already included.

To receive my free daily newsletter or to subscribe to my premium NewsletterPro service please visit www.investingbetter.com .

alpesh

Please follow and like us:

London Forex eShow goes live!

LFS_eShow_logoLast Friday 20th February we presented a live series of webinar direct from the London Forex Show.  Featuring 8 expert traders delivering thought provoking presentations on different aspects of forex trading, the variety and quality of the talks was attended by not only 70 people sitting in the seminar room, but also to a further 400 traders tuning in from home and office.

 

The line up of speakers was as follows:

  • 10:45 AM – 11:15 AM –
  • Trade like a Master with Elite Strategies – Rishi Patel, Master the Markets
  • 11.30 am – 12 noon –
  • Master Price Action, Eliminate Psychology – Zaheer Anwari, Traders Cosmos
  • 12:15 PM – 12:45 PM –
  • Breaking down Psychological Barriers with Hypnotherapy – Catherine Stott, hypnotrading.co.uk
  • 12. 50 pm – 1..20 pm –
  • How to catch the big money moves in forex – Tom Tragett, Forex Round-Up
  • 1:25 PM – 1:55 PM – Still losing Money Intra-day trading? Try Lifestyle trading – Rob Colville, TheLazyTrader.com
  • 2:00 PM – 2.30 PM – How the Forex Industry really works – from an insiders point of view – Kevin Ashby
  • 2.45 pm – 3.15 pm – Using simple patterns and rigorous trade management to build consistency in any market – David Paul
  • 3:30 PM – 4:00 PM- Best forex and share strategies for today´s markets – Darren Winters – Wealth Training Company

If you´d like to review the recordings of the presentations please click here.

simon_LFeShow

Simon Campbell, founder of London Investment Week, hosts the live London Forex eShow

Please follow and like us:

The S&P 500 has been grinding higher on a “flight to quality”

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) has been grinding higher on a “flight to quality” sparked I believe by the Greek exit crisis. Overseas investors are hedging against the Eurozone by bringing funds into the US Equity universe. SPY 2-14

The fund flows continue to remain mixed and therefore the odds are hard to define clearly for this index.  My long term measurements are all solidly bearish, but the bears don’t seem willing to step up in any way and use these ramps back to the highs to unload positions.

I remain a bystander in the overall index, and a cautious intraday scalper for now…

In the absence of any qualified setups this week, let us take some time to explore the concept of “Predictive Failure Technology™”.

Most traders spend all their time looking for ways to find winning trades.  What if you focused not on winners, but on valid trades that had hidden flaws that would likely make them losers?

Everything shifts from that perspective, and gets a lot more fun and more profitable…

If you can correctly identify the trade patterns that are likely to lose, you can skip taking these and RADICALLY increase your win rates (Which lowers stress and emotional discomfort while trading).

Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX) is an example of Predictive Failure Technology™ in action…As you can see from the chart, this stock is extended to the downside, and has formed a reverse head and shoulders on its daily chart.

This will be seen by most everybody as a screaming buy signal and confirmation of reversal.  I would expect to see a surge of buying in the stock next week as it reacts to this technical signal.

HOWEVER, there are what I believe to be some fatal flaws in this price pattern that means it is extremely likely to setup, then fail (I think it will top out near $22.50 per share).

So, by choosing to pass on this pattern, I can outperform by avoiding a frustrating pattern failure that many of my peers will take and get stuck in.  We can watch this scenario unfold together and at least get some educational value out of a quiet and choppy market!

FCX 2-14

Please follow and like us:

The FTSE 100 is treading water ahead of the Greek debt negotiations

Last time I wrote to you I mentioned that in my view the FTSE 100 was headed lower and I called for the 6,800 points’ barrier to be the pivot point of interest. However even though the FTSE briefly did break below this important level the outcome was not what I expected. Over the past few days the FTSE found support around the 6,800 points area and bounced back higher making near its previous 6,900 points highs.

I think that this inconsistency on the London benchmark index has to be attributed to the unstable and fragile fundamental environment mainly in Europe. The main topic of discussion is the renegotiation talks between Greece and the Euro-zone on how to refinance a new debt deal or whether to just scrap it and let Greece exit the union.

Now the UK might not be a part of the Euro-zone but definitely developments concerning our biggest trade partner take their toll on the domestic market as well. In my view, the most likely scenario is that either side (or both) will have to accept a worse deal than they initially had in mind and the situation will be successfully resolved one way or another.

In the mean time I am looking to play the ranges in the FTSE 100 until this issue gets resolved, the 6,900 points area seems like the top barrier for the index at this time and significant support is concentrated ahead of the 6,800 points floor so I will try to trade near these extremes. I believe that until we come to a final solution with the Greek issue the FTSE will not decide on its direction so try to find reversal opportunities near these levels should be my game plan.

Please note that during the coming days we’ll probably see increased volatility on the FTSE as there’s a host of important economic reports scheduled for release: inflation, employment and retail sales data. These guarantee some price action on the FTSE so be quick on your trades and don’t get stuck between the swings.

I would like once again to invite you all to my upcoming Forex MasterClass which I believe will be the educational event of the year. I have included a 10% discount for anyone that wants to join within the next couple of days so click the banner below to find out more – don’t worry the 10% discount code is already included.alpesh_event

alpesh

To receive my free daily newsletter or to subscribe to my premium NewsletterPro service please visit www.investingbetter.com .

 

Please follow and like us:

On-Target Trading Master Class hailed a success!

On Friday, 6th February, 35 private investors attended our inaugural On-Target Trading Master Class event at the City of London Club.

Starting at 9.30 with Thiru Nagappan discussing his elite forex trading strategies, delegates then went on to participate in Steve Ward´s trading psychology workshop.  One lucky volunteer was hooked up to the monitor to measure heart rate simulating real emotions felt by traders when buying and selling.  Happily, the volunteer was rewarded with two free books from Steve Ward to take home.

After a short tea break delegates were invited to consider the benefits of longer term trading and the results of compounding returns, by Zaheer Anwari of Traders Cosmos, before stopping for lunch and networking.

Alpesh Patel from InvestingBetter.com revealed how the hedge fund managers view the markets and how individual traders can take advantage of the big moves.

Delegate Mark C said “Thank you for holding this excellent event with high quality speakers.”.

Host and organiser Simon Campbell said “I was delighted with the turn out at this first On-Target Trading event.  The venue was very nice, right in the heart of the City, and the delegates and speakers mixed very well.  The format of combining 5 expert speakers works well and made for a varied and interesting day”.

alpesh_OTT_060115_pic3Alpesh Patel speaking at On-Target Trading Master Class 6th February 2015.

 

For next Master Class event dates click here

Please follow and like us:

The S&P 500 has rallied up and stalled…

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) has rallied up and has stalled at the highs of its recent range.  I would expect to see this market turn lower and begin to test the bull’s resolve by breaking down below the $200 per share level.  I still am not excited by the light volume and flighty nature of the intraday action, so will remain on the sidelines in this index for the time being.

 

I am worried that the chaos that might result from a Greek exit from the Eurozone could put the US markets back on “crash watch”, so risk should remain high for the time being…

 

SPY 2-8

 

Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) was a disappointment as it violently whipsawed back down to take out the lows before reversing.  It’s right back where the whipsaw started, but the whip took out the trailing stops near $105 per share, again proving why it’s important to take partial profits and aggressively trail stops to make sure you make some money even if the pattern you are trading fails..

 

CVX 2-8

 

The story from the SPYDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI) is similar to that of CVX.  The stock set up, then offered a chance to take profits off the table as it broke out to new highs, and then whipsawed to take out trailing stops.  While not the profit I expected, it’s nice to not have a pattern failure produce a loss.

 

Again, I feel we are headed into a time of great risk and great opportunity.  All the markets need are a catalyst to produce a frantic rush to the exits.  I am worried about the ability to control risk or get filled should that occur, so will be hyper conservative this month as I wait for this market tension to be released.

 

XBI 2-8

 

Please follow and like us:

The FTSE 100 has hit the 6,900 points’ highs but now the outlook seems to point lower

Last week I wrote to you mentioning that my view on the FTSE 100 was that the index was due to hit its previous highs and indeed I was proven right. Over the past few sessions we saw the London benchmark making its way to the 6,900 points boosted by the better than expected PMI reports that revealed that the domestic economy is again on a good path of growth.

However, now that the dust has settled and we can take a cooler look on the developments of the past week I think that the outlook has changed. First of all I would like to mention the surprise reading of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the key metric of job growth in the US. The report printed better than expected last Friday and renewed investors’ conviction that a rate hike from the Fed is not far away.

Now if you apply the same way of thinking on how the domestic economy is fairing recently it’s pretty easy to draw the same conclusion: the Bank of England is becoming increasingly bullish on raising rates sometime within the current year. It might be late 2015 or even early 2016 but the thing that matters is that investors are again debating a higher interest rate outlook.

We know that such an outlook doesn’t bode well for the stock market and I have mentioned this many times in my notes to you. A higher interest rate policy means that money isn’t that cheap anymore and that will take its toll on the stock market and that’s exactly what’s on everyone’s minds at this time.

So taking into account the recent domestic and overseas developments and always keeping an eye out for any unfavorable escalation of the Greek debt negotiations I am conservatively bearish on the FTSE 100 this week. I believe that the 6,800 points is the pivot level and this morning the index attempted to break below it.

If this break holds then I think that the 6,700 – 6,750 points’ area will be the next stop. If for any reason the decline picks up pace then we could see the FTSE 100 diving towards the 6,650 points support level so we need to keep an eye on any fresh news, domestically and from abroad.

On a side note I would like to invite you all to my upcoming Forex MasterClass which I believe will be the educational event of the year. I have included a 10% discount for anyone that wants to join within the next couple of days so click the banner below to find out more – don’t worry the 10% discount code is already included.alpesh banner

alpesh

Please follow and like us:

FTSE’s outlook hinges on the upcoming PMI reports and I am conservatively bullish

[Join Alpesh and four other expert speakers at On-Target Trading Master Class this Friday in London  – click here for details]

The FTSE 100 didn’t offer us much in terms of thrills and excitement the week that passed and instead preferred to consolidate its previous gains around the 6,750 points area. The really impressive rally that we witnessed during January turned into a sideways, non-directional pattern throughout the previous days and this morning the UK index is still looking for momentum with limited price action.

As I mentioned to you in my last note the investment consensus among traders was that the FTSE 100 couldn’t sustain its current levels and that the index would have to give up the gains it recorded during the first month of the year. However I also explained why I thought that this is the perfect environment for the FTSE to move even higher, should it find the necessary spark.

I continue to be of this view and this week I am looking towards the PMI reports from the UK that have the potential to provide the essential fundamental spark to send the FTSE higher again. This is not to say that I have any kind of “inside information” that the reports will beat expectations, I am just saying that if we see robust readings in the Manufacturing and Services’ sectors then the excitement could send the FTSE above the 6,800 points again with a view to climb towards the 6,900 barrier.

The important pivot point for me this week is the 6,800 points area, if the FTSE finds its footing and climbs above that level with momentum then I think that we’re going to see it reaching at least its previous highs just shy of the 6,900 points. That’s my game plan for the week ahead and I am hoping to see it materialize.

To receive my free daily newsletter or to subscribe to my premium NewsletterPro service please visit www.investingbetter.com .

 

alpesh

Please follow and like us: