Bo Yoder S&P Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) remains range-bound and biased to the downside.  While I would expect to see this latest bullish wave turn lower before new highs are seen, but the odds are poor at this time.  I will focus on other opportunities until this price action clears up and offers me a more advantaged entry.

SPY 1-17

 

Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) has performed well after “setting up” last week as a double bottom.  I would expect it to stall out near the resistance offered by the 50 period moving average near $110 per share. This offers a perfect opportunity to take some profits off the table and trail stops.  At this point I would expect that stops could be trailed to the $105 area, but the price action will dictate that exact level once resistance is tested.

CVX 1-17

Last week, I forecast that the SPYDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI) was likely to cycle back down to the $190 level before breaking out to a new high.  It reached a low of $188.96, and reversed with power.

With such an elegant entry, I would be aggressively taking profits to lock in gains as the market breaks out above the highs at $201.48, and would trail my stop to breakeven so as to take all risk off the table.

XBI 1-17

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Everybody thinks the FTSE 100 needs to reverse lower but will it?

The FTSE 100 has run an incredible rally the past week, climbing from the 6,600 points to above the 6,800 points’ barrier at the end of the week.

The UK stock market was lifted on the back of the anticipation and confirmation of the new easing package from the ECB that means that cheap money will continue to be available to European investors.

However this was not the only piece of news that sent the FTSE skyrocketing to these highs again. I feel that it is important to mention here the release of the minutes from the last BoE meeting as well where any hopes for a rate hike within 2015 have vanished. The two members of the committee that have been voting in favour of a rate hike have changed their minds and now the committee remains unanimous in their views that this is not the time for tightening.

So where does this leave the FTSE 100? The truth is that the current rally has gone a long way and the market looks really overbought from a technical point of view. So I wouldn’t rule out a correction sometime soon, possibly within this week. However the fundamental outlook is pointing towards further gains for the stock market as cheap money will continue to be available for investors and traders alike. And I kind of think that the fundamentals are too strong to overlook this time.

I think it will be interesting to see how the market will react the following days, I have been discussing with a lot of market participants that thinkthat this rally needs to come to an end and these levels cannot be sustained. To my mind though this sounds as the perfect environment for the FTSE 100 to continue climbing on the medium term as everyone will be betting against it. I am very keen to see whether my instinct will serve me well in this occasion.

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alpesh

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Round-the-Clock-Trader welcomes new speakers

We´re delighted to welcome so many new faces to our Round-the-Clock-Trader event this month.  Joining some of our most popular speakers are veteran New York Forex trader Jimmy Young, options expert Guy Cohen, the Lazy Trader Rob Colville and leverage ETP expert Ben Thompson from Societe Generale.

Don´t miss your chance to learn about forex options – more and more traders have started to hedge their currency positions over recent times – Richard Muller explains all at 10am.

Ever wondered how the successful trader can spot the reversals before the rest of the market – join Lee Sandford at 3pm to learn about Fibonacci Symmetry Patterns.

This is just some of the excellent speakers we have lined up to help you increase your trading returns.  Join Simon Campbell from London Investment Week and have your questions answered.

Simply register for the event and you will automatically receive access to the catch-up recordings [even if you miss the live show].

Click here for details of the upcoming event.

 

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Chill out after the conference with a nice cold beer

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travel

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Top down view of a conference dining hall

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travel

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Three people wearing blue sitting around a desk for a meeting.

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Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam, eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem sequi nesciunt.

travel

Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim ad minima veniam, quis nostrum exercitationem ullam corporis suscipit laboriosam

 Nisi ut aliquid ex ea commodi consequatur? Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur.

At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati cupiditate non provident.

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Can the FTSE 100 break above its recent highs and make it to 6,600 points?

This is going to be a very intriguing week for the FTSE 100 with very interesting developments coming our way over the next few sessions. During the previous week the London index extended its current rally and made it all the way to the 6,600 points running an impressive reversal from the 6,300 lows.

However now that the FTSE is near its yearly highs the question becomes whether the index can sustain its gains. To be honest with you I am not really sure, I see little in terms of fresh fundamental developments to allow for this rally and I think that with the nervousness among the market participants in light of the ECB meeting this week and the Greek elections the coming weekend the index could be in for a pullback.

Having said that though I wouldn’t bet that this pullback would be nothing more than a short-lived correction as the general bias in the FTSE 100 is bullish and the upcoming developments point towards more gains. Apart from the unpredictable effect that the ECB easing program will have on the markets I am also focusing on the employment data due on Wednesday.

I am not so much interested on another small decline of the unemployment rate but I would rather focus on the expected pickup on the Average Hourly Earnings component. This has been a much debated issue since many analysts were concerned that the improvements in the labour market didn’t find their way to the employees’ pockets. So if expectations are met and the Earnings component improves considerably then we could see the FTSE 100 beating its previous highs and make its way towards the 6,650 area and beyond.

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alpesh

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Bo Yoder´s S&P Update

The S&P 500 (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) is showing signs of bearish control, but the bulls came back with a vengeance to close out the week strong. Odds are good that we continue to ping pong within the daily range, so I will look elsewhere for opportunity in the week to come.

SPY 1-17

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) is back on my radar as it has shown signs of bearish exhaustion on the daily chart. The double bottom pattern currently showing on the daily chart is the confirmation I have been waiting for. Stops would have to be set below the lows at $100.15, and the bullish engulfing bar that formed is my trigger bar for entry.

CVX 1-17

 

 

 

 

 

 

The SPYDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI) has been trading within the context of a sustained uptrend for some time. The current pullback looks attractive, but my instruments show that the odds are higher that this ETF will cycle once more back down to the $190 area before the breakout can occur.

I would be looking for excuses to enter if price can cycle back down into the $183-$193 area. (Indicated on the chart as a grey box.) Entry and stop loss levels would be determined by the first valid reversal candlestick pattern that can form within that range.

XBI 1-17

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The decline in the US wages’ growth is weighing down on the FTSE 100

After a very interesting and volatile first trading week of the year, since the first one wasn’t really a “full trading week”, the FTSE 100 seems to be back in action with very attractive price action. The London index spent the last week running a rally from the 6,350 points’ support area that I mentioned to you in my previous note up to the 6,550 points where it looks like that the momentum died down.

What is very important to take into consideration is the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report from the US on Friday that took the air under the FTSE’s wings at this point. The report printed in a mixed fashion and even thought the numbers of jobs added beat analysts’ expectations and the unemployment rate fell to fresh lows it was the decline in the Average Hourly Earnings component that disappointed traders. So even though the labor market is progressing well this is not equally reflected on the employees’ paychecks and that is an issue for the domestic economy.

Following this development most global stock markets turned negative with the FTSE 100 pulling back for its 6,550 highs to end the week around the 6,500 points area where we find it this morning. This turn in the stock markets’ fundamentals seems to suggest that the momentum in the FTSE might be switching to the downside and that’s a possibility that I would like to explore this week.

My primary scenario calls for a decline below the 6,450 points’ level which I consider as the pivot point for the FTSE 100 at this time. Should the London index break this important short-term support area then my targets are set at the 6,400 and 6,300 points’ levels as the FTSE will look to revisit its previous week’s lows. The index is trading within a broader sideways formation between the 6,300 and 6,600 levels and we should be looking to play the ranges while it lasts.

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alpesh

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