US Markets are still in a clearly defined uptrend despite increased geopolitical uncertainty and low trading volumes. The current state of VIX, Volatility Index, is indicative of very complacent market conditions. The end of next week is the beginning of August, which is seasonally a very thinly traded month anyway due to the holiday season. On Friday, US indices pulled back a little but the overall trend is still intact unless the current direction continues throughout the next week trading. European Markets are showing divergence from the US with FTSE and DAX creating a sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
Dow Jones Daily timeframe price action is creating a rising wedge pattern. Friday’s price action is currently challenging psychologically important support levels which were seen as good buying opportunities in the past. Current support on the downside is at 16915. The loss of that level and a confirmed close below could potentially target further downside support at 16847 which is also 50 Day SMA level, followed by 16717-16735 levels. Alternatively if the Friday low stays intact and the price moves swiftly higher, the upside resistance is located at 17000 followed by 17068 and 17100.
Pivot points for Monday 28th July trading are : Pivot – 16986, Resistance 1-17058, Resistance 2- 17152, Support 1-16890, Support 2-16819.
S&P Daily timeframe price action resembles the Dow Jones as well. Current support on the downside is at 1974 which is Friday’s intraday low. The loss of that level and a confirmed close below could potentially target further downside support at 1967 followed by 1953 -1955 levels. Alternatively if the current levels hold and the price moves swiftly higher the upside resistance is at 1985 followed by 1991.
Pivot points for Monday 28th July are : Pivot – 1979.37, Resistance 1 – 1983.57, Resistance 2 – 1989.33. Support 1 – 1973.61 Support 2 – 1968.87.
FTSE Daily timeframe upside resistance is at 6840 followed by 6875. The initial downside support is at 6769. The loss of that level and a confirmed close below that level could potentially target further downside support at the psychologically important 6705 which is the 200 Day SMA level followed by 6643 which is the 10th July low. These support levels are also 50% and 61.8% Fib retracements from the high at 6895 level.
Dax Daily timeframe price is currently trading below the very important 9794-9800 (Neckline) resistance level. Only a breakthrough and a daily close above that level could potentially target additional upside resistance at 9870 followed by 9965 and 10047 level. Alternatively if the current price action falls further next week, the downside support is located at 9597 followed by 9467 levels.
Gold Daily timeframe current upside resistance is at 1316.25. Only a confirmed breakout higher and a daily close above that level could potentially target further upside resistance at 1324.75 followed by 1331.40 and 1346.80. Alternatively current support on the downside is at 1293.97 followed by 1286.95 and 1280.76
Silver Weekly timeframe price action appears to be a bullish breakout after a long term sideways consolidation. The important downside support is at 20.11 level. The loss of that level and a confirmed close below could potentially negate the current breakout. If that occurs than the further downside support could be located at the long term low at 18.72 and 18.61 levels. Alternatively if the current levels hold than the initial upside resistance could be found at 21.63 followed by 22.18 and 23.00 levels.
WTI Crude daily timeframe downside support is at 101.00 level. The loss of that level and a daily close below could potentially target further downside support at 99.88 followed by 99.00 levels. The important upside resistance is at 102.85 and 103.75-103.90 levels. Only a confirmed breakout and a daily close above 103.90 could potentially target further upside resistance at 104.50 followed by 105.22.
USD Index Daily timeframe is currently challenging a very important upside resistance at 81.00 level. Only a breakout and a daily close above that level could potentially target further upside resistance at 81.50 level. The initial downside support is at 80.60 followed by 80.39 & 80.26 levels. The short term bullish outcome for the USD Index could be indicative of a short term bearishness in EURUSD and GBPUSD and potentially bullish for USDCHF and USDJPY. The opposite is also true, the short term pullback in USD index at the current levels could potentially indicate short term bullish EURUSD and GBPUSD and bearish USDCHF and USDJPY reaction.
EURUSD Weekly is currently retesting a very important downside support level. The loss and the close below current 1.3425 level could potentially target further downside support at 1.3295 followed by 1.3246 level which is the 38.2% fib retracement from the current high at 1.3993 level. Alternatively if the current levels hold the initial upside resistance for any oversold bounce backs is at 1.3510 followed by 1.3600-1.3620 levels.
Phillip is a professional trader, managing a personal investment and trading fund. He has proprietary trading experience in energy commodities futures trading including procurement of commodities for the physical delivery on behalf of a corporate client base.
Like many investors, Phillip began Trading and Investing with a long only approach on unleveraged equities since 1996. In 2003 he started equity margin trading and in 2004 he bolstered his portfolio by adding versatile CFDs and Spread Betting. Phillip trades a wide range of asset classes and instruments but specializes in equity index futures ( ES_F, S&P 500 ) and energy commodities futures trading. Phillips trading style is structured, objective and business like with aggressive risk management structure. A sharp minded individual, Phillip is well versed in the latest thinking regarding the Psychology, Financial Management, Fundamental and Technical Analysis aspects of financial trading.
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