Monthly Archives: May 2014

USD/CAD chart pattern analysis

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The USD/CAD has an interesting chart pattern currently. It has drawn back to the lows of early May (as I write) and we have the 200dma looming down at around 1.0750 currently. I believe there are two scenarios that could play out. One is that the pair finds support against the early May lows and…

Can the FTSE 100 hold on its gains?

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Can the FTSE 100 hold on its gains? Next week’s events will be the answer to that question The FTSE 100 surprised me this week , I was prepared for further losses from the UK index as it seemed that the momentum had turned to the downside. The FTSE had reached the 6,900 points and…

S&P 500 challenging upper reaches

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My S&P 500 trade (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) is challenging the upper reaches of the red zone as I wait for resistance to manifest itself.  If the highs of this area (Near $192.50) are broken, I would take my losses and move on to the next trade.   This week has been a “wait and…

Clustering and why trading can be difficult

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If you have read my last article then the concept of system expectancy should have you in good spirits. Assume you can call the markets more than 50% of the time. Then, if your reward to risk is positive a kind fellow will write you a cheque for the rest of your days. In a…

Trading update

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My S&P 500 trade (ETF Proxy – AMEX:SPY) “ping-ponged” successfully from the entry one (Red Zone)  to the take profit zone (Blue Zone) this week for another quick and easy profit.   This trade is so typical of the “grind” type trades that seem to dominate my P&L column these days.  Not the long sweeping…

AUD shows some weakness

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We looked at the AUD/USD currency pair several weeks ago when it was pushing for new highs for the year above 0.9400. I warned of the weekly chart looking overstretched and to be observant for weakness to show up. The fundamental backdrop to the Australian economy appears to be weakening and with that we should…

FTSE 100 turned to downside but strong Retail Sales kept it afloat

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The FTSE 100 has come off its recent 6,900 points highs and last week we discussed that the outlook has been turning to the downside and that the index was looking poised for losses. However, I also mentioned that the FTSE’s outlook and how far down it will go depended on the way 3 important…

The concept of Expectancy

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Over the years I have horrified quantitatively orientated seminar audiences by using a coin to predict market direction. I always ask, “would any of you trade with a coin”. They all to a person laugh and dismiss me as a crazy old man. I then ask, “let’s consider a special game”. “If you can predict…

If you are seeking direction, talk to a counsellor…

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Feeling like you have lost your way, things not quite coming together? Are you grumpy, irritable and wondering what you are doing wrong? The partner giving you grief? There are people out there to help, be assured. They may have comfortable couches, talk a lot about your childhood and repressed feelings; the word guilt may…

What’s next for the £?

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With interest rates back on the agenda with the FED and the BoE maybe we are finally now in the markets moving away from the non-existent growth figures and are looking for the inflationary and therefore next interest rate move. I still maintain that no matter what Carney says, we are in another housing bubble.…